Buy or rent: what Miravel calculates for two households

Owning isn't automatically better than renting. Two example households, two cities, two outcomes: here's what the numbers say once you work them through honestly.

Buy or rent is usually an emotional question. Miravel turns it into a math problem. Same decision, two different households, two different answers.

The example calculations use 6% p.a. ETF return on invested capital, 3% annual property appreciation, and a 3.7% borrowing rate. This rate applies only for the fixed-rate period (Zinsbindung), which in practice is typically 10 to 15 years; after the fixed period ends, a follow-on financing (Anschlussfinanzierung) is required at the then-prevailing market rate, which may increase total costs. The 3.7% rate also assumes good credit at a loan-to-value below 80%; with less equity (as in the Köln example with around 91% LTV) you should typically plan for 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points more, which shifts the break-even by 1 to 2 years further out. The wealth comparisons show net wealth if you sell at that point, after selling costs, nominal and not adjusted for inflation. They are not forecasts, your numbers depend on your specific assumptions. Miravel simulates your scenario.

Two households, two timelines

Nuray · Köln — Single · €52,000 gross/year
Purchase price€260,000
Extra cost of owning per month+approx. €460
Buying pays off after~8 years
Markus & Lisa · Hannover — Couple · €102,000 gross/year
Purchase price€380,000
Extra cost of owning per month+approx. €410
Buying pays off after~6 years

How wealth develops: buying vs. renting

Köln example (6% ETF return, 3% appreciation): renting leads for the first few years. After about 8 years, buying pulls ahead.

  • After 5 years: +€14,200
  • Year 8: 0
  • After 15 years: +€57,000

€31,382 — Closing costs in Nordrhein-Westfalen. This money never becomes part of your apartment.

Nuray, Köln. Single, €52,000 gross.

Nuray is 32, works as a designer in Köln, and is on tax class I (Steuerklasse I). Her take-home pay: around €2,466 a month (2026). She has €55,000 saved and is thinking about buying a two-room apartment for €260,000.

In Nordrhein-Westfalen, the Grunderwerbsteuer (real estate transfer tax) is 6.5% of the purchase price. On top of that come the notary (around 1.5%), the land registry (around 0.5%), and the agent's commission (around 3.57%). Total purchase costs on top of the price: around 12%, or €31,382. None of this money turns into equity in the apartment.

  • Purchase price: €260,000
  • Closing costs (NRW, with agent): around €31,382, gone, not equity
  • Monthly payment + Hausgeld: around €1,510 a month
  • For comparison, Warmmiete: €1,050 a month
  • Extra cost of owning: around €460 a month

Miravel simulates both paths side by side: Nuray buys, or Nuray rents and invests the difference plus the capital she didn't tie up in a property.

  • After 5 years: the renting path is around €14,200 ahead (closing costs not yet earned back)
  • After 10 years: the buying path is around €18,500 ahead
  • After 15 years: the buying path is around €57,000 ahead

With around €460 more going out each month and €31,382 in closing costs she'll never see again, it takes about 8 years for buying and renting to draw level. The question Nuray has to ask herself: am I staying in Köln for at least that long?

Markus and Lisa, Hannover. A couple, €102,000 combined gross.

Markus (€54,000 gross, tax class III) and Lisa (€48,000 gross, tax class V) bring home around €6,000 a month between them. They have €100,000 saved and are looking at a terraced house for €380,000 in Hannover.

Niedersachsen charges 5% Grunderwerbsteuer (real estate transfer tax). With the notary, land registry, and agent, the closing costs come to around 10.6%, or €40,166.

  • Purchase price: €380,000
  • Closing costs (Niedersachsen, with agent): around €40,166
  • Monthly payment, running costs, and maintenance reserve: around €2,060 a month
  • For comparison, Warmmiete: €1,650 a month
  • Extra cost of owning: around €410 a month
  • After 5 years: the renting path is around €6,300 ahead
  • After 10 years: the buying path is around €53,300 ahead
  • After 15 years: the buying path is around €125,700 ahead

With around €410 more a month, the two paths draw level after about 6 years. Hannover has a more favourable Kaufpreisfaktor than an expensive big city. Stay long enough and buying wins clearly here.

Grunderwerbsteuer across Germany: what you'll pay

The Grunderwerbsteuer (real estate transfer tax) is one of the biggest moving parts in your closing costs. It varies a lot by Bundesland (as of 2026):

  • 3.5%: Bayern
  • 5.0%: Baden-Württemberg, Niedersachsen, Rheinland-Pfalz, Sachsen-Anhalt, Thüringen
  • 5.5%: Bremen, Hamburg, Sachsen
  • 6.0%: Berlin, Hessen, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
  • 6.5%: Brandenburg, Nordrhein-Westfalen, Saarland, Schleswig-Holstein

On top of that, every time: the notary (around 1.5%) and the land registry entry (around 0.5%). If an agent brokered the deal: another 3.57% including VAT. Without an agent, closing costs land between 5.5% and 8.5% depending on the Bundesland. With one, between 9% and 12%.

The Kaufpreisfaktor: when is buying too expensive?

The Kaufpreisfaktor (price-to-rent multiple) tells you how many years of net cold rent you're paying for a property. A multiple of 25 means 25 years of rent for this place. The higher the multiple, the longer it takes for buying to add up.

  • Under 20: usually cheap, and buying pays off faster
  • 20 to 25: a solid middle ground in mid-sized cities and good locations
  • 25 to 30: take a hard look at whether you'll hold it long enough
  • Over 30: buying only adds up over a very long hold or with strong rent growth
  • Prime locations in München and Hamburg: currently a factor of 30 to 40

When renting tends to win

  • A high price-to-rent multiple (over 30): the rent is cheap relative to the purchase price.
  • A short or uncertain time horizon: a job change, a move, life plans still up in the air.
  • Little equity: a high loan-to-value pushes up both your interest bill and your risk.
  • Your money earns a higher return elsewhere at a risk you're comfortable with.

When buying tends to win

  • A long hold (with a price-to-rent ratio around 20, typically 15 to 20 years): the closing costs get earned back.
  • A reasonable price-to-rent multiple (under 25): the financing is sustainable.
  • Enough equity: ideally 20 to 30% of the purchase price, plus the closing costs.
  • Steady income with no big planned expenses in the next few years.

Miravel simulates buying and renting scenarios with your actual numbers: equity, purchase price, interest rate, cold rent, and investing the difference. You see which path comes out financially ahead, and over what period. For your household, locally in your browser.

Frequently asked questions

What are the closing costs on a property purchase in Germany?
Between 5.5 and 12 percent of the purchase price, depending on the Bundesland (the Grunderwerbsteuer ranges from 3.5% in Bayern to 6.5% in Nordrhein-Westfalen, Brandenburg, Saarland, and Schleswig-Holstein) and whether an agent is involved. The notary (around 1.5%) and land registry (around 0.5%) always come on top.
How long until buying pays off?
It depends on the Kaufpreisfaktor, the appreciation rate, and your alternative investment. In the examples here: Köln around 8 years, Hannover around 6 years until both paths are even, then buying wins. With lower appreciation it takes longer. In prime locations like München (factor 35 to 45): considerably longer. Miravel calculates the break-even for your actual numbers.
Can I buy in Germany as a foreigner?
Yes. Germany has no restrictions on property purchases by foreign nationals, whether from inside the EU or beyond it. Banks can set their own requirements, for example a German residence permit and proof of local income.
What is the Kaufpreisfaktor (price-to-rent multiple)?
The Kaufpreisfaktor, or price-to-rent multiple, is the purchase price divided by the property's annual net cold rent. A multiple of 25 means you're paying 25 years of cold rent for the property. The higher the multiple, the longer it takes for buying to come out ahead financially. In prime locations like München or Hamburg, it currently sits at 30 to 40.

Related scenarios

  • Buy an apartment to rent out, or an ETF: what leaves you with more over the long run?
  • How secure is your household really if the income stops?